Cao Ren's judgment, put simply, was this: Liu Bei now held too many cards.
In warfare, the defending side usually held the advantage. They could rely on terrain, fortifications, and prepared defenses to achieve twice the result with half the effort.
But whatever weapon the Left General possessed, the one capable of collapsing city walls, no one yet knew how it would perform against natural barriers. Still, at the very least, for both Cao and Liu, the value of strong walls had already been greatly diminished.
From this point alone, Xu Huang deserved his reputation as a veteran commander. If he could not rely on walls, then he relied on rivers.
But rivers were ultimately not man-made fortresses. And…
Coughing lightly, Cao Ren studied the two forces exchanging arrows across the river.
"The Left General previously stationed fewer than ten thousand men at Duyang, perhaps seven or eight thousand. The reinforcements from Yi Province should be close to another ten thousand. Combined, that makes over twenty thousand troops. By numbers alone, they should not be weaker than the army at Yan County."
"Yet what we see now is barely ten thousand. If Xu Gongming does not realize this… then he is in danger."
Xiahou Yuan nodded in agreement, though he still spoke in Xu Huang's defense.
"The Left General's heavy crossbows can shoot over two hundred paces and still pierce armor."
"The strongest crossbows under the Chancellor barely reach one hundred and thirty paces. Most are only a hundred. Only bowmen can reach two hundred."
The logic was simple. A strong crossbow could be learned in two hours. But how many men could draw a three-dan bow?
Even now, despite the river between them, Liu Bei's soldiers stood close to the water's edge, while Xu Huang's troops had retreated more than a hundred paces back.
"And this Guan Ping," Xiahou Yuan sighed. "He is, after all, the son of Xu Huang's old acquaintance."
This was not to suggest Xu Huang would betray Cao Cao. But familiarity could cloud judgment. It was happening now.
Across the river, Guan Ping's voice rang out, full of emotion.
"Uncle Xu, prolonged defense must end in defeat! Chancellor Cao's great momentum is already gone. Lord Xuande's campaign to pacify the realm follows the will of the people. Why not serve the Han?"
Xu Huang's reply came sharp and unyielding.
"In Jing and Xiang before, your father nearly split me in two with a single strike! Whatever bond there was is gone. Do not call me uncle!"
"Uncle, my father later said he nearly killed an old friend. That shows his heart still—"
"Excuses! Not worth believing!"
"Uncle, last year letters came from our homeland in Hedong. They said both Guan and Xu are heroes of the Han from Hedong!"
"…!"
At the mention of home, Xu Huang could not remain unmoved.
After Cao Cao lost Guanzhong, returning home had become almost impossible. Everyone knew Hedong was tied to Guanzhong. Without Guanzhong, holding Hedong would only end in loss.
That was why Cao Cao had strengthened defenses in Shangdang, while Hedong itself…
"General! Enemy troops to the northwest!"
The report from a guard snapped Xu Huang around. Fury flashed across his face.
"Guan Ping! In Jing and Xiang your father tricked me with talk of old ties. Now you use Hedong's name to deceive me again! You father and son truly are—"
"Form ranks! Prepare for battle!"
Whatever insult he had intended, he never finished it.
As Guan Ping withdrew, Huang Zhong praised him warmly.
"Ping'er, truly both wise and brave!"
Both men had seen the prophetic screen. They knew Xu Gongming would do the same if given the chance, so neither felt the slightest guilt.
Wu Yi also showed no hesitation. War was not theater. Victory and defeat were not matters of right or wrong. He raised his hand.
"Cross the river. Break the enemy."
---
Observers saw more clearly.
Xiahou Yuan and Cao Ren quietly compared notes and soon realized Liu Bei's army must have secretly crossed upstream along the Li River, then swung in a wide arc before striking Xu Huang's main force.
With those iron-armored troops leading the assault, Xu Huang's line would be no sturdier than paper. What followed was easy to imagine.
Xiahou Yuan suddenly stood.
"Should I go persuade Xu Gongming to surrender?"
Cao Ren gave him a strange look.
"…I only thought that since Gongming is Guan Yu's old acquaintance, if he could live…"
Cao Ren turned his gaze away.
"I fear that if you go, he might refuse to surrender even if he meant to."
"What do you mean by that, Cao Zixiao?!"
Cao Ren ignored him.
Watching the Cao army retreat again and again along the north bank, while Liu Bei's vanguard began successfully crossing from the south, the outcome was already clear. His interest began to fade.
"If word of this change had reached them earlier, they should have withdrawn to Linying, using the Ying River as a barrier and relying on superior numbers. Hold Guangcheng Pass in the north, and then…"
But even as he spoke, Cao Ren shook his head again.
That would only prevent defeat for a while. It would still be far from victory.
Where did all these divine weapons under the Left General come from?
Could it truly be that the Mandate of Han had not yet ended?
Xiahou Yuan snorted.
"With reinforcements, that old Huang Zhong broke Wuyang in a single day. Yan City won't last more than two now."
"And Guangcheng Pass… who knows whose hands it's in by now."
Having surrendered once and returned, Xiahou Yuan feared his elder brother's failure. He had memorized everything he saw, reporting every detail. Yet Liu Ye and Dong Zhao privately mocked him, saying his reports could not be fully trusted, that Guanzhong's fall might not be due to Liu Bei's strength.
If not Liu Bei's strength, then were they saying he, Xiahou Yuan, had been cowardly?
So he requested to go to the front lines to redeem himself. Now he had done all he could. The rest depended on what strategy Liu Ye could devise against this thing called gunpowder.
---
While Cao Ren drifted in thought watching Yan City's slow collapse, Zhang Fei stood far away, gazing toward Jia County. He suddenly sighed.
"When my second brother shook the realm, his fame reached even here."
Behind him, You Chu scratched his head, confused. Guan Yu had indeed been heroic in Jing and Xiang, but saying he shook all under heaven seemed a bit much.
But his general occasionally spoke in startling ways. He was used to it.
Like now.
"Since Jia County lies ahead, and the bandits here are mostly cleared, De Rong, go back to Guangcheng Pass and bring our Great Han Peacekeeping Divine-Might General, the Taiping Cannon!"
"Tomorrow I, Old Zhang, will bombard Yingchuan!"
Yes. Like now.
Zhang Ji silently nodded, gathered his personal guards, and rode off to the rear.
This campaign had felt strange to him from the start.
When they marched in June, speed had been everything. Through Hongnong, striking Shan County, lodging at Xin'an, breaking Hangu Pass, turning south at Gucheng to launch a surprise attack on Yique Pass. The entire advance had taken barely half a month.
But in the seventh, eighth, and ninth months, General Yide had only taken Taigu Pass. The rest of the time he even helped the people of Luoyang plant crops.
Whenever Zhang Ji asked about battle, Zhang Fei always said to wait. Wait for supplies. Wait for the rainy season to pass. Wait until the troops were trained and grain sufficient. Wait until all fronts moved together.
So Zhang Ji could only watch what he believed were perfect opportunities slip away.
Until October, when the rains ended. Only then did General Zhang finally move, declaring that the time to punish the rebels had arrived.
He had aimed straight at Guangcheng Pass, which the Cao army had spent three months repairing and garrisoning.
Heaven help him, Zhang Ji had almost believed Lord Xuande intended to spend the winter in Luoyang and resume the campaign in spring. At this time of year, what could possibly be done to Guangcheng Pass?
And then…
Only a quarter of an hour.
The Cao army's painstakingly rebuilt pass, repaired day and night for three months, was blasted apart in that short span.
So that was why they had waited so long.
They had waited for the Great Han Peacekeeping Divine-Might General Taiping Cannon to arrive.
They had waited to avoid the rainy season that weakened its effect.
They had waited to coordinate with Lord Xuande and the strategist's armies advancing from two other directions.
General Yide truly possessed great insight.
But what of those other two routes led by Lord Xuande and the strategists?
What scenes were unfolding there?