I organized my thoughts.
If I assume that the news of 50,000 advance troops being deployed is itself a "bait," it wasn't difficult to guess why they chose specifically 50,000 men.
Even if it's a fortress rather than a castle, defenders generally have a significant advantage over attackers in battle.
It's not that we couldn't hold them off, but we couldn't overwhelm them either, so wouldn't both sides just end up in a drawn-out war of attrition?
Ginor must have had this in mind when he argued that "if this becomes a prolonged battle, our army will be the losing side."
For the Brands army to secure a definite advantage, they should have brought at least 70,000-80,000 troops.
They could probably scrape together 20,000-30,000 more soldiers from various places, given their large population and extensive borders with many deployed troops.
In that case, Epinel would likely have abandoned the resistance and returned to the castle. Holding out in the castle with the combined forces would have been a much more rational decision.
Right there, I could read something like an "answer."
'Since 50,000 was just enough to keep Epinel from retreating... did they match that number on purpose?'
If their aim was to keep our forces tied up at this fortress and give us the impression that "we have a fighting chance," the number 53,000 was incredibly precise.
This was essentially proven by the fact that Epinel took the bait.
'Wait a minute.'
If that advance force is bait meant for us, then their real target isn't this fortress.
There would be no reason to send bait to the fortress otherwise.
So what is their true objective?
Here again, I brought in two absolutely correct predictions.
Withdrawing troops is "somewhat close to the right solution."
Victory in battle depends on "heaven's will" - meaning it depends on how our army acts.
We win if our army chooses "something."
And withdrawing troops from the fortress to retreat to Valhart Castle is "somewhat close to the correct" action.
'Does winning include withdrawing troops... and our army needs to do something else?'
But if that's the case, isn't the phrasing a bit strange?
We need to do something to win?
We lose if we don't do something?
'A situation where we lose if we don't do something... a situation where we only win if we do something...'
Once more, I began compiling all possible courses of action the Brands army might take.
The more impossible options I eliminated, the more clearly the truth would shine.
What would the Brands army do?
How did they act to make the two predictions turn out this way?
Once more...
* * *
"...Hmm."
Chel was speechless with shock after hearing Farfalle's explanation.
"What do you think?"
"Rather than what I think... should I say it's too bold... is it really possible...?"
"It is possible. In fact, this is the only way. To deliver a decisive blow to the Aishers army quickly without waiting for 30,000 reinforcements."
Farfalle spoke in an extremely serious tone.
"Of course, we can only use this method right now, at this single moment. I understand that the risk of failure is by no means small. However, I believe now is precisely the time to make a decision."
"Hmm..."
Chel stroked his chin thoughtfully.
Farfalle's proposal.
Certainly, it was the most unorthodox yet most efficient method they could take in the current situation.
The problem was just one: the enormous losses our army would suffer if we failed.
With over 30,000 soldiers already having switched from the Brands army to the Aishers army due to Irene's betrayal, if we were to lose all our current forces as well, it could lead to truly irreversible consequences.
Wouldn't it become a question of whether the southern or northern border would be breached?
"...It seems too reckless... I still think it's safer to slowly attack the fortress head-on. Of course, Swen's ability is concerning, but as you said, if he could use that ability freely, wouldn't they have invaded Raclaine Castle long ago? I've heard that even Swen himself said, when he was in our army, that it wasn't an ability he could use whenever he wanted."
"Then, let's assume as you say that Swen cannot use his ability."
Farfalle placed his hand on the map on the table and began explaining again.
"If this becomes a prolonged battle, we would win, but we don't know how long it would take. The Aishers army has many commanders with outstanding abilities. Of course, if we keep dragging it out, we would eventually win, but it's uncertain whether the southern nations and Serphina's northern army will remain idle in the meantime. Given our Lord's firm intention to punish the Aishers army first, I believe the correct answer is to resolve this as quickly as possible. And the only way to avoid dragging this out is the method I just proposed."
"But... isn't there a possibility that your strategy won't work, Strategist?"
"Of course there is, but I consider that probability to be very low."
"I'd like to hear your reasoning, if you don't mind."
Farfalle nodded and said:
"The current fortress commander, Epinel Rosenkroz, is a battle-oriented general with an inflexible personality. She prefers direct confrontation rather than relying on schemes or strategies. She's likely to insist on defending the fortress. Given her high standing in the Aishers army, her opinion will naturally be accepted. This information is based on intelligence I've gathered and cross-verified while stationed at the eastern border region, so it should be accurate."
"Then ultimately..."
"Yes. Although the losses we would suffer in case of failure would be painful, engaging in direct combat without knowing exactly what Swen's ability is doesn't give us much chance of victory either. If both options carry risks, shouldn't we pursue the one with the greater potential reward?"
"..."
"Lord Chel. That is all I have to say. Even if you choose not to follow my advice, I will support you wholeheartedly."
Although Farfalle held quite a high position as a national strategist, ultimately it was General Chel's responsibility to command in the field.
After contemplating for a while, Chel nodded as if he had made up his mind and said:
"...We will-"
* * *
I cleared my mind completely.
Then, I inserted only the two facts that came from my recent prediction.
That the outcome of the battle depends on our army's choice.
That withdrawing troops from here is somewhat the right action.
These two propositions are absolute "truths." An intelligence of 100 only speaks facts.
This meant that both withdrawing soldiers and doing something else were necessary for victory in this battle.
I stared at the map for a long time.
The forests distributed quite extensively around the area.
Raclaine Castle. The fortress. And the narrow, straight corridor leading to Valhart Castle.
As I slowly examined the map-
I eliminated possibilities one by one.
All the strategies the Brands army could use against us.
All the countermeasures our army could employ against the Brands army.
After eliminating all of these... only a single "possibility" remained, shining intensely in the darkness.
'...!'
That was the moment.
My mind, which had been tangled with complex thoughts, suddenly cleared, and I felt like I understood why an intelligence of 100 would make such a prediction.
Something like divine revelation... enveloped me intensely.
"...A surprise attack."
I unconsciously let those words slip from my tongue.
Yes.
A surprise attack.
The enemy's target is not this fortress.
The advance troops sent to the fortress are bait.
The enemy's target is the capital and only stronghold of the Aishers army, which is currently undermanned due to troops being sent to fight the Alepel army-
'The enemy plans to launch a surprise attack on Valhart Castle.'
The number of deployed troops was likely not actually 50,000. It's not difficult to spread false information.
Even if it were true, the forces arriving at the fortress would be fewer. The remaining soldiers could simply march through the forest, bypassing toward Valhart Castle.
With that realization, all the fragmented facts that had seemed completely unrelated began to fit together.
So.
That's why the intelligence of 100 said it [depends on heaven's will].
Of course, if we prepare for the surprise attack, we'll win. But if we fail to prepare, we'll lose.
That's why the intelligence of 100 said [somewhat close to the right solution].
If we withdraw troops from the fortress and station them at Valhart Castle, we could at least prevent the surprise attack.
But the Brands army isn't stupid. If they confirm that reinforcements have arrived, they'll withdraw their forces without engaging in battle.
Ginor's proposal was a half-answer. It would keep our army's forces safe, but we couldn't damage the Brands army's forces either—essentially maintaining the status quo.
Thinking about it again, no phrase describes the situation better than "somewhat close."
The real answer.
The "most efficient answer for the Aishers army" predicted by the intelligence of 100 is—to prepare for the surprise attack and counter-attack.
Troops that fail in their surprise attack will fall into confusion. Dealing with soldiers whose formations have collapsed would be as easy as eating cake.
A method that preserves our army's strength while delivering a critical blow to the Brands army.
That was what "preparing for the surprise attack on Valhart Castle" meant.
'...Hah.'
I let out a long sigh and leaned back against the chair.
I noticed cold sweat streaming down my entire body.
It felt like walking on thin ice. Extracting what was happening from statements that were absolutely true but completely incomprehensible required an enormous amount of energy.
Nevertheless.
In the end, I succeeded in finding what seemed to be the right path.
'This is just half the battle.'
That's right.
At this point of discovery, it was still only half the solution.
This wasn't the Lunarian army that would almost unconditionally listen to me.
Even if my words were absolutely correct, they would be meaningless if no one listened.
Moreover, this was the ruthless Aishers army, where even someone like Ginor had to swallow a bitter pill just because he lacked experience.
'Still, I have to convince them.'
A rookie commander like me probably couldn't move Epinel's heart.
Then the person I should approach first is... ultimately Ginor.
He's the national strategist. Even though Epinel had once rejected Ginor's opinion, the probability of him convincing her was higher than mine.
'There's no time. I need to move quickly.'
I got up and headed toward where Ginor was.