December 29th.
Today marked the final trading day of the year for the Tokyo Stock Exchange. As the closing bell rang, the Nikkei Index settled at 38,915 points. Every major media outlet reported the news with fervor, and some so-called experts even proclaimed with great confidence:
"Next year, the Nikkei will surge to 50,000 points!"
"Woah—" Watching the broadcast, Berno Light couldn't help but gape. "If we'd known, shouldn't we have invested in stocks too? That sounds like guaranteed profit!"
"There's no such thing as guaranteed profit," Oguri Cap replied coolly, pouring cold water on her friend's excitement. "If something like that really existed, it would be hoarded in secret—not announced on TV."
"That's right," Shuta An added calmly. "And the Nikkei continuing to rise next year? I seriously doubt it."
"Huh? Why?" Berno Light looked utterly confused. "How could the stock market possibly fall?"
"It didn't fall last year either," Shuta An said, shaking his head, "but do you know how many Trainers who invested in stocks ended up jumping off Central Tracen Academy's roof?"
"..."
"The current market is nothing more than a beautifully decorated bubble," he continued evenly. "Once it's pricked, it won't hesitate—it'll plunge straight to the bottom."
"It…it won't be that bad, right?" Berno Light still wasn't fully convinced. But seeing Ann speak with such certainty, she finally abandoned the thought of investing.
Yet Shuta An clearly had no intention of letting the topic end there.
In the Dream World, he had spoken with overseas experts about Japan's economic trajectory. While he hadn't been able to sway the insiders, explaining it to Oguri Cap and Berno Light was more than manageable.
"You both know Japan's economy has been booming for over twenty years," he began. "But has its economic structure remained unchanged during those twenty years? Of course not."
"When the Plaza Accord was signed a few years ago, Japan agreed to it with ambitions of challenging the dollar's dominance. Officially, it was meant to resolve America's trade deficit—but Japan benefited as well. A weakening dollar meant a stronger yen, and the dollar depreciated sharply. That's why, after I came to Japan, I sold my house in the US but refused to convert the money into yen. I knew it'd be a loss."
"And what did the yen's sharp appreciation bring?"
"On the surface, it raised the yen's international status, encouraged overseas investment, and gave Japanese companies the chance to expand abroad. I'm sure you've both seen plenty of news about Japanese firms buying US real estate or merging with local businesses."
Oguri Cap and Berno Light listened intently, nodding without missing a word.
"But back then, my father sometimes said an old saying," Shuta An continued. "Misfortune leans upon fortune, and fortune hides misfortune beneath it."
"As the yen strengthened, Japan's economy was quietly swallowed by a massive bubble. A stronger yen raised production costs, which pushed up prices. And once prices rise, competitiveness falls—after all, no one chooses expensive goods on purpose."
"So what did the government do? To stimulate domestic demand, it loosened financial regulations. Starting two years before I arrived in Japan, the central bank cut interest rates five times, from 5% to 2.5%. Half. Just like that."
"That meant money sitting in banks steadily lost value. To make profits, capital had to flow outward—to investments. In other words, liquidity in the market exploded. And banks?"
"They preferred lending to non–value-adding sectors—real estate, retail, private housing—rather than manufacturing."
"Why?" Oguri Cap frowned slightly. "Aren't they all just clients?"
"There's a huge difference," Shuta An replied with a faint grin. "To push banking internationalization, the government enforced a double standard: domestic banks needed only a 4% capital reserve, while banks with overseas branches had to meet the 8% international standard. So banks had to constantly replenish capital and reshape their assets just to survive."
"And how do you reshape assets? By lending."
"Banks needed to lend money. The problem wasn't bad loans—it was not being able to lend at all. To expand market share, they did everything they could, even offering ultra-low interest loans."
"And under government policy, real-estate mortgage loans carried a lower risk weight than ordinary corporate loans. For the same amount lent, they required only half the capital. So naturally, banks flooded into real estate. Who wouldn't want an easier solution?"
"Once banks moved that way, individuals and companies followed. Some unscrupulous banks even encouraged borrowers to buy property, then use that property as collateral to borrow again—and again—to buy more."
"A snowball that never stops rolling," Shuta An said quietly. "No one knows how many livelihoods are trapped inside that bubble. That's why the stock market keeps rising. That's why housing prices are absurdly high—and why I refuse to buy property in Japan."
He shrugged lightly.
"But bubbles can't expand forever. Land prices have already far exceeded real demand. Are houses really worth that much? Everyone knows the answer."
"Even the government knows," he continued. "Miss Emperor told me they're planning to tighten financial policy. If Oguri hadn't shone so brightly, the URA Association's budget would've been slashed next year."
"No wonder they called Oguri their savior," Berno Light murmured in realization.
"The moment financial policy tightens," Shuta An said, making a small poking gesture, "the bubbles in both stocks and real estate will burst."
"Then—" Berno Light's voice trembled slightly. "When it bursts—a lot of people will die, won't they?"
"Many will," Shuta An replied without hesitation. "But they'll be killed by their own greed."
"At that point, Japanese society will become utterly bleak," Berno Light whispered. "And then—"
"That's why I want Oguri to challenge overseas next year," Shuta An interrupted.
"I see." Berno Light finally understood. "Ann wants Oguri to become a spiritual pillar for the Japanese people during an economic depression."
"Exactly. If a crisis hits next year, and Oguri steps forward—she'll become the faith of countless people."
"And then," Shuta An clenched his fist tightly, "when she enters the Dream Trophy—"
"No one," he said with quiet conviction, "will ever be able to deny Oguri Cap's place in history."
———
Because Oguri Cap needed proper rest, Shuta An did not choose to take the two Uma Musume to any of the famous, crowded grand shrines for Hatsumode. Instead, they quietly paid their respects at the nearby Toyosaka Inari Shrine. It was only a two-minute walk away, and on the morning of New Year's Day, there was no one else there—only the three members of Team Sadalsuud.
"It's so quiet—" Berno Light looked around, her voice instinctively lowered. "There's really no one here but us."
"If you don't like crowds, then we might as well come to places like this every year," Shuta An replied casually. To him, Hatsumode was merely a cultural custom; whether it was performed at a famous shrine or a nameless one made little difference.
"That sounds good," Oguri Cap nodded in agreement. "Going to crowded shrines is troublesome."
That word—troublesome—carried more meaning than it seemed. It wasn't just about the inconvenience of crowds. If the three of them moved together in public, they might easily be photographed and posted online. Oguri Cap could be recognized by fans at any moment. Time would be wasted standing in long lines. And from the Gray Uma Musume's perspective, that time would be better spent eating.
In short, the members of Team Sadalsuud reached a unanimous conclusion: if they were to do Hatsumode again next year, they would still choose a small, quiet shrine like this.
At this hour, neither the shrine's chief priest nor the miko were present. They were likely out doing their own New Year visits elsewhere. As that thought crossed his mind, Shuta An found it faintly amusing.
We come here for Hatsumode, and they go to the big shrines—Then where do the priests of those big shrines go?
He shook his head slightly, dispelling the idle thought, and turned his attention back to Oguri Cap and Berno Light, who were praying earnestly in front of the shrine.
If Shuta An were standing at one of the popular shrines right now, he would see countless people smiling as they clasped their hands together—praying for wealth, prosperity, and success in the coming year.
Everyone was talking about houses and stocks.
The Nikkei Index had surged close to 40,000 points on the last trading day of the previous year, reinforcing the widespread belief that Japan's economy would only continue to improve, endlessly and without limit.
Yet as January passed, while Oguri Cap entered her recuperation period, the Nikkei Index did not rise further. Instead, it began to fall—slowly, but unmistakably.
Among stock investors, the prevailing sentiment was, This is just a technical adjustment. Don't panic.
However, when Kitahara visited Shuta An, he complained casually, his words drifting from local news to Central Tracen Academy.
"It only dropped a little, but the Trainers at the Academy all sold their stocks," Kitahara sighed. "Looks like that Black Monday really left them traumatized."
"Kitahara, you invested too?" Shuta An raised an eyebrow. "I remember you saying you didn't understand stocks at all."
"I bought some," Kitahara scratched his head, embarrassed. "Even if you don't understand it, as long as you hold, it just keeps going up."
"Then you didn't sell?" Shuta An pressed, his tone subtly probing.
"I sold," Kitahara grinned. "Making enough to spend is good enough. If it weren't for recruiting new team members after coming to Central, I wouldn't even need this money. The more Uma Musume I train, the more I have to spend."
(I found some discrepancy in the Cinderella Grey and Pretty Derby. You see in the last chapter of CG—when Berno become a Trainee Trainer, I saw DaiSca in the line. She joined Kitahara team—not Spica. It seems spin off like Cinderella, Sakura Laurel, and some movies have its own line)
"That's true," Shuta An nodded. "I've already spent a lot just on Oguri. Training more Uma Musume will only increase the expenses. I used to think training facilities could be shared to save money—but that idea was naïve. Most equipment has to be customized. Only then can the training be effective."
"Then most of the funding comes from Oguri Cap's prize money, right?" Kitahara asked, as he always had.
"It all comes from my share," Shuta An shrugged, offering no further explanation.
"Oguri Cap's resting until the second half of the year," Kitahara changed the topic smoothly. "So you should be pretty free, Ann-san?"
"Not really," Shuta An waved his hand. "I still need to stay with Oguri. By March—maybe even this month—we're planning to go to Hokkaido."
"Getting away from Tokyo is a good thing," Kitahara sighed. "Even someone at my level has reporters watching me nonstop now. Honestly, the pressure's getting heavy."
"That's Tokyo for you," Shuta An patted his shoulder. "Get used to it early—it'll be good for you and your team."
"So you're already used to it?" Kitahara sounded genuinely impressed. "I still can't handle it."
"It's not about being used to it or not," Shuta An grinned and said something that left his friend speechless. "Thanks to Symboli Rudolf, reporters don't dare to film here."
"No wonder—" Kitahara muttered under his breath.
In reality, Oguri Cap was recuperating, and Shuta An was working part-time. But in the Dream World, the young man could not stop riding.
As a jockey, aside from the one-week break at the beginning of the year, he had to ride continuously—unless he was so unpopular that no one offered him mounts. Those jockeys enjoyed "holidays" all year long.
Shuta An, of course, was not one of them.
Still, he deliberately reduced the number of races he accepted. February was approaching, and with an important exam ahead, he could not afford any accidents that might prevent him from taking it.
The second exam was held in early February. To be honest, the content was something any professional jockey could complete without difficulty. By the time Shuta An dismounted, officials from the URA Association were already waiting to congratulate him.
With that, he officially obtained his JRA jockey license.
"This will make overseas expeditions much easier in the future," the official in charge of jockey management said cheerfully. The department knew well that Oguri Cap's camp had overseas plans. Given Shuta An's reputation in the United States, he would certainly not ride only Oguri Cap in a single G1 and return home. He would receive many commissions from American Trainers—and every victory would count toward the department's performance.
Shuta An didn't care about any of that.
After leaving the examination venue, he was promptly dragged into a car by Yutaka Take and taken straight to a restaurant in Ginza.
The moment he stepped inside, the top jockeys of Ritto Training Center appeared before him.
"Originally, I wanted to treat Shuta-kun alone," Yutaka Take said with a smile from behind him. "But everyone found out and insisted on coming along. So let's just call this your welcome party."
He raised his glass.
"Welcome, Shuta-kun—to Central."
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