November 1989 – December 1991
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The Soviet Union's collapse did not come as a thunderclap but as a slow, grinding avalanche that Raj Mehra watched with the cold precision of a predator. The System had warned him years earlier, mapping every fracture line—Gorbachev's desperate reforms, the ethnic fires in the Baltics and Caucasus, the oil price slump that starved the treasury. While the world saw chaos, Raj saw a banquet of opportunities. With BP now the kingmaker in V.P. Singh's fragile National Front government, holding the Home and Rural Development Ministries through loyal nominees, Raj possessed the perfect levers to turn foreign collapse into Indian resilience—and personal fortune.
The first moves began in the winter of 1989, even as BP consolidated its post-election gains.
**Early Resource Deals Amid Shortages**
Raj understood that the USSR's lifeblood—oil and fertilizers—was bleeding out. Global prices hovered low, but internal distribution collapsed as republics hoarded supplies. India's trade with the USSR—built on decades of non-aligned camaraderie—was fraying. Subsidized oil, fertilizers, and heavy machinery had fueled Indian growth, but now shipments delayed, prices spiked erratically. With BP influencing the Rural Development Ministry under nominee Minister Vikram Singh (a UFT veteran), Raj could push policies favoring private imports while lining his pockets.
He summoned Suraj Patel to the Mumbai war room, a fortified chamber in the Mehra mansion lined with maps and telex machines. "Suraj, the bear is wounded. We strike now."
Suraj nodded, reviewing System-provided dossiers. "Boss, oil and fertilizers first—their shortages are acute. We use Pragarti's European arm to approach regional soviets directly. Moscow's grip weakens daily."
The first move came in freezing December 1989. Pragarti Ventures, leveraging Luxmi Bank's international credits, initiated barter talks with Siberian oil collectives. Raj's offer: Indian consumer goods—textiles from Mehra-affiliated mills, pharmaceuticals sourced through discreet channels, and Bata footwear—in exchange for deeply discounted crude and fertilizers.
Suraj led the negotiations in Delhi's Soviet embassy annex, with Arjun Das providing security shadows. "Gentlemen," Suraj said to the Soviet delegates, "your people need goods; ours need energy. Let's make this mutually beneficial."
The Soviets, facing empty shelves and unpaid workers, accepted eagerly. The deal: 600,000 tons of crude at 25% below Brent rates, plus 300,000 tons of potash and urea from Ukrainian plants.
Shipments began in January 1990, arriving staggered through Odessa ports, rerouted carefully to avoid Western scrutiny. Immediate savings: 180 crore on oil alone, recycled into UFT expansions.
UFT's growth exploded in tandem. The trust, now a national model under BP's Rural Ministry, had ballooned to 150 villages across Maharashtra and Gujarat by early 1990. Farmers, enticed by 40-50% profit jumps over prior seasons, flocked to sign five-year contracts. In Maharashtra's drought-hit Marathwada, 50 new villages joined after witnessing neighbors' bumper harvests—wheat yields up, cotton profits doubled. Gujarat's Saurashtra region added 40, drawn by zero-interest Luxmi loans and guaranteed dividends. BP's ministry pushed subsidies for UFT tech, turning it into a quasi-government program—rural voters locked in, crediting BP for their prosperity.
BP membership swelled to 8 lakh, with every new UFT village becoming a party stronghold. Rural rallies drew crowds wearing Bata shoes, reading TBF, and chanting BP slogans—visible proof of progress amid national uncertainty.
As 1990 wore on, ethnic tensions in the USSR intensified—Armenian-Azerbaijani clashes, Central Asian unrest. Raj pivoted to fertilizers. System intel pinpointed urea plants in Ukraine facing shutdowns from fuel cuts. Pragarti bartered 250,000 tons for Bata footwear and Mehra machinery spares—items scarce in Soviet markets.
The deal closed in March 1990, shipments arriving amid India's lingering post-1987 drought effects. Resold through UFT networks at premium prices to desperate farmers, netting 80 crore profit. Another 70 crore came from metal scraps from idled Siberian factories, smelted for Mehra Construction's highway projects—reducing costs by 15%, adding another 100 crore in savings-turned-profits.
ASUR played guardian: operatives shadowed shipments, neutralizing two hijack attempts by black market gangs in Odessa. No losses, seamless delivery.
By June 1990, these deals totaled 350 crore in gains—savings and resale margins fueling BP's war chest. India, under Raj's subtle ministry pushes, avoided the worst fertilizer shocks that could have crippled harvests.
**Joint Ventures in Declining Soviet Industries**
Perestroika's joint venture laws had opened doors, but few dared enter. Raj did—boldly.
Three ventures launched in early 1990:
1. **Textile JV in Kharkiv, Ukraine** – 80 crore invested for 49% stake. Mehra designs and Indian cotton revived 12 idle mills. Production surged; fabrics sold locally amid internal desperation, then exported back for Bata's new apparel line. Profits: 100 crore in first year.
2. **Machinery JV in Minsk, Belarus** – 70 crore for farming and construction tools. Upgraded with Mehra tech, output doubled. Tools supplied UFT at cost (boosting yields further) and sold internally. Profits: 90 crore.
3. **Electronics JV in Leningrad** – 50 crore for radios/TVs with Indian components. Amid consumer hunger, sales boomed—60 crore gain.
Vishal Singh discussed the machinery JV with Raj in Mumbai. "Boss, Belarusians are eager—their plants rust, but our tech revives them. We'll have prototypes by summer."
Raj nodded. "Good. Tie it to UFT—every tool in a farmer's hand is a BP vote."
As republics declared sovereignty throughout 1990, central partners weakened. Raj bought out shares during ruble crashes, gaining full ownership by late 1990 for pennies on original value.
Combined profits: 250 crore, plus priceless synergies—fabrics clothing Bata workers, tools tilling UFT fields, electronics entertaining BP rallies.
UFT reached 400 villages by late 1990 (300 Maharashtra, 100 Gujarat), with pilots in Madhya Pradesh. BP's ministry budgets ballooned to 1,200 crore for "rural modernization," all modeled on Raj's trust.
**Capitalizing on India's 1991 Trade Loss**
The formal dissolution in December 1991 severed India's subsidized lifeline. Oil prices spiked domestically; fertilizer shortages loomed.
Raj had stockpiled aggressively since mid-1990: extra barrels in coastal tanks, urea in warehouses. When chaos hit, Luxmi Bank, under Suraj, financed private importers shifting to CIS states—offering swift credit against BP ministry guarantees.
Arbitrage flourished: buy distressed Kazakh oil, Ukrainian grain, Belarusian potash at panic prices; resell at Indian market rates. Luxmi's letters of credit dominated the trade, earning fees and interest.
Suraj reported in July 1991: "Boss, we've locked 70% of private CIS imports—profits rolling in."
The trade eased India's crisis: milder forex drain, stabilized prices for key inputs. BP's Rural Ministry, led by Vikram Singh, allocated imports to cooperatives, buffering rural inflation.
Profits: 300 crore in 1991. UFT exploded to 600 villages (450 Maharashtra, 150 Gujarat and MP combined). BP membership crossed 1.2 million.
**Military Tech & Arms Pivot During the Coup**
The August 1991 coup attempt collapsed in days, leaving military depots across Central Asia unguarded.
Raj dispatched ASUR teams—20 elite operatives posing as humanitarian workers—to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. They acquired rifle blueprints, radar systems, AK surpluses at scrap prices from confused commanders.
Arjun Das briefed Raj: "Boss, the blueprints are gold—upgrades for our rifles, radar for border surveillance."
Back in India, enhancements: JS-1 serum upgrades for 300 operatives, better comms, better weapons against ISI threats.
Raj sold sanitized versions to defense ministry via proxies—contracts worth 200 crore, fast-tracked by BP's Home Ministry nominee, Minister Arjun Singh (no relation to Das).
"Arjun," Raj told the nominee in a secure call, "Push the procurement bill—domestic tech priority."
The bill passed, crediting BP for "self-reliance amid crisis."
India gained: arms components reduced import dependence amid lost Soviet supplies.
UFT hit 800 villages by year-end; BP's influence solidified as the "party of security and progress."
Raj's total gain from the collapse: over 1,100 crore—resources, ventures, arbitrage, tech—all while India weathered the storm better than history demanded.
The bear fell. The lion feasted.
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