Smith's analysis was not wrong, at least at the beginning. Everyone, including Bai Huawei, believed that it was the 52nd Special Mixed Fleet that launched a surprise attack on the 61st Special Mixed Fleet to the west, while the 51st Special Mixed Fleet was ahead, closer to the 41st Special Mixed Fleet.
This was actually related to an intelligence report provided by the Navy headquarters.
After the 61st Special Mixed Fleet was attacked, more precisely, after the first wave of attack, the Navy headquarters sent a telegram to the 41st Special Mixed Fleet, mentioning that during the air defense operation, they intercepted an Attack Aircraft Group of the Newland Fleet, while another group took advantage of the chaos, broke through the air defense net of the 61st Special Mixed Fleet, attacked the "Liu Xiangzhen" and heavily damaged the carrier.
Obviously, the key was the number of Attack Aircraft Groups.
